Nigeria: Why the promise isn’t matching the reality and this is for the attention of His Excellency President Bola Tinubu—
By Abbati Bako,psc,bsis, alumnus of Kent University,UK’s European University and can be reached at abbatibako@gmail.com
Nigeria is a paradox:
the sixth‑most‑populous country on the planet, home to more than 450 ethnic groups, and blessed with oil, gas, gold, diamonds, rare‑earths and a host of other minerals. Yet it ranks among the most difficult nations to govern and lags behind many African and Global‑South peers.
*Below is a concise analysis of the three inter‑locking problems——-
bad economic policy, security challenges, and corruption/governance and a set of “permanent‑solution” ideas and concrete steps President Bola Tinubu could take:
1. Bad economic policy
Debt‑driven budgeting:
The 2026 budget (N58.18 tn) is being labelled a “debt trap” because it relies on unsustainable borrowing to fund capital projects while revenue forecasts (e.g., $64 / barrel oil) are unrealistic. The deficit‑to‑revenue ratio of about 70 % signals fiscal insolvency.
Over‑optimistic revenue targets:
The same budget projects N34 tn in revenue despite a weakening oil market, creating a gap that must be filled by more borrowing. Inflation and exchange‑rate volatility. The administration’s fiscal solvers have not been matched by monetary discipline, keeping inflation high and the naira under pressure in global markets.
2. Security challenges
Nationwide security challenges:
From Boko Haram and ISWAP in the North‑East to banditry and kidnapping in the North‑West and Central Belt, and oil theft in the South‑South, violence touches every region.
Human‑cost:
Recent research indicates that over 52,915 civilians have been killed since 2009, and 586 abductions were recorded in the first three months of 2025 alone and the problem is still ongoing.
Military morale & welfare:
The Army stresses professionalism and sacrifice, but still welfare gaps (e.g., poor barracks, unpaid allowances) undermine effectiveness.
3. Corruption & generally bad governance
Systemic corruption: Structural weaknesses, low pay, weak judicial enforcement, and patronage networks keep corruption entrenched. Hence,Transparency International ranks Nigeria 140th out of 180 on the 2024 CPI.
Misuse of public funds:
Allegations that a regulator spent $5–7 million on Swiss school fees for his children illustrate the “grand theft” that drains resources of the country is still ongoing and a million thanks to the president of Dangote group of companies.
Lack of accountability:
Asset declarations are rarely verified, and anti‑corruption agencies suffer from political interference and insufficient funding and this must be looked into.
Permanent‑solution framework
Area of key reforms and how to fix the problem:
•Fiscal discipline and adopting a single calendar‑year budget (repeal‑and‑reenact the 2024‑2025 budgets) to end “multiple‑budget” chaos, contradiction and misplacement of priority.
• Enforce realistic oil‑price benchmarks and create a sovereign‑wealth fund to smooth revenue volatility. Reduces borrowing, restores credibility, and protects capital spending from fiscal drift.
Economic diversification:
•fast‑track the development of the gold, rare‑earth and agricultural sectors (e.g., Northern gold mines, Zamfara and others).
•Incentivise manufacturing and digital services to create jobs for the youth bulge. Lowers dependence on oil, expands tax base (but gradually) and cushions the economy against external shocks.
•Security architecture:
Institutionalise a 24‑hour crisis cell and on a serious note strengthen intelligence sharing (NIA, NSCDC, DSS, regional task forces and other security apparatus).
• Prioritise welfare (housing, education, healthcare) for troops to boost morale. Improves rapid response, reduces civilian casualties, and curtails the appeal of armed groups ASAP.
•Anti‑corruption & governance: Grant full autonomy and adequate funding to the Code of Conduct Bureau and anti‑corruption agencies (EFCC, ICPC).
• Mandate independent verification of asset declarations and publish them publicly. Increases accountability, deters rent‑seeking, and restores public trust.
•Institutional capacity:
Strengthen the civil service through merit‑based appointments and professional training.
• A must to digitise government services:
(SERVICOM) to reduce face‑to‑face rent‑seeking. Improves policy implementation and reduces opportunities for petty corruption among all governments institutions.
•What President Tinubu can do:
Immediate actions to do in the next 12 months calendar as 2027 approaches:
1. Fiscal reset—
Push the “repeal‑and‑reenact” bill through the National Assembly to align the budget with a single calendar year.
2. Transparent oil revenue—
Publish a monthly “Oil Revenue Dashboard” showing actual production, prices, and allocations to the sovereign‑wealth fund.
3. Security emergency decree—
Formalise the 24‑hour crisis cell, increase recruitment, and fasttrack the deployment of forest guards in high‑risk states like Niger, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi North eastern states and North Central as well as oil rich states of the country.
4. Anti‑corruption blitz:
Give the EFCC and ICPC independent budgets, and launch a public “Asset‑Declaration Verification” campaign within the next 90 days period.
5. Diversification incentives:
Introduce tax holidays and low‑interest loans for gold‑mining and renewable‑energy projects in Northern Nigeria. On tax reforms that are coming on in January 2026, citizens must be educated, enlightened on the necessity and advantage on why the system must be implemented as it did in other economic emerging markets of Africa, Asia and Eastern European Nations.
Bottom line:
Nigeria’s backwardness is not a function of resources but of policy incoherence, unchecked security challenges, and entrenched corruption. A combination of fiscal prudence, economic diversification, a robust security framework, and relentless anti‑corruption enforcement that can break the cycle. The Tinubu administration has the political capital to initiate these reforms; the challenge is to follow through with implementation and visible results.
Abbati Bako, is a political strategy and communications consultant, IPRC, Nigeria, former Electoral Commissioner @Kansiec, Special Adviser to former Governor Kano State Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, formerly Treasurer Kaccima, former students’ mentor @Kent university UK and can be reached @abbatibako@gmail.com
